附一个Bloomberg今天的分析文章 "兴登堡现象":

" May 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks' retreat from six-year
highs may have just begun, according to a technical indicator
known as the "Hindenburg Omen."
     The market signal, named for a German airship that caught
fire and crashed 69 years ago this month in New Jersey, was sent
in April when unusually large numbers of stocks both reached
one-year highs and lows as prices climbed.
     Since then, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 2.2
percent, including a 1.9 percent loss last week. The index may
be headed for a 20 percent drop, said Jim Miekka, the analyst
credited with discovering the barometer.
     ``We've had a market that has been undermined for quite
some time by oil and interest rates, but it was the Hindenburg
that told us that we should get out,'' said Miekka, 45, who
publishes the Sudbury Bull & Bear Report newsletter in St.
Petersburg, Florida."

Good job! That means you find new ways to look at the market.

The VIX is gauging the UNCERTAINTY of the market. As you can see, noboday will know where the market is heading. So it is not surprising that VIX is breaking higher.  However, compared around 2000, it is still relatively low. At that period, VIX was about 40, now it is only about 18.

I think things will settledown in the next two weeks, without the VIX breaking new highs.

I really admire you.

I came to almost same conclusion as you today. i don't think current economy justify such sharp correction. if it moves down slowly over time, I will be more bearish. However this sharp big correction without really bad economy data, maybe mean market is over reacting. but what do I know. market will tell me.

Now everything smells like the Summer of 1987. I think some time around late Summer/early Fall the market may see a short, sharp and very violent drop, may send the VIX to low 30.

This will be a buying opportunity. However, the afterwards rally may see a major rotation of market leadership. 

i think it's far less severe than 1987. I don't know why those 2 are compared frequently.

basically i am getting more and more bullish as the market keep dropping. i am looking into entry point soon(maybe a few weeks, maybe longer.)

Did you mean it is far less severe or it will be far less severe?

Economy-wise 1987 wasn't a bad year at all, GDP gorwth was very healthy and corporate earnings growth was spectacular (>35% YOY).

I think one reason people remind 1987 is we have a new Fed Chairman again - Greenspan stepped in office in the Summer of 1987 - and that adds a lot to uncertainty in terms of monetary policy. Remember, the Black Monday has little to do with economy and earnings. It's more about a market machnism induced, or "quantitative", event.  

ok. i don't know what will happen tomorrow. as we know, still today there is no clear explanation of 1987 crash (well, you may say there are theories, but to me none are completely convincing. so I think it is still quite a mystery.)

I think it IS far less severe. but I cann't say whether tomorrow it will still be quite less severe.

1987 Black Monday 23% drop in one day without real bad economical data. Did we experience any drop even close to that scale during the past few weeks? i'd say no.