http://www.mitbbs.com/mitbbs_article_t.php?board=Investment&gid=13612083&ftype=0

总结一下就是如果那个fund在你买后很短时间就distribute，那就亏了。不过如果是tax free的account的，就无所谓了。

原帖似乎说Christmas MF会长，不知是不是真的。

my idea is: buy it if you think it is a good buy at that time, and sell it if you think it is no longer a good one to hold. Try to time MF is less reasonable.

Exception: when stock market "panic", then hold to cash and wait.

i think it is not responsible to say, hey there is no such thing called timing the market. it is not about time in the market. that is what MF manager wants you to believe. We should at least open to other opinions.

I can tell you, from my experience, timing is critical. I have seen enough bear market, what kills you is not "not making money in bull", it is "lose money in bear", simple calculation will tell you that.

if you consider the time frame as 1900-2000, then i have nothing to say about timing. but we are talking about, 1960-1980, 1980-2000, 2000-2020.if you are those unlucky person get into the market 1960, and retired in 1980, you are busted. if you are those extremely lucky person get in 1980, and get out 2000 and retire rich, congratulations. we are unfortunaltey the 2000-2020 generation, so nobody knows what will happen!

before you draw a conclusion, maybe you want to look at other ways.

Ha! Maybe I am not a very advanced investor.  Maybe I should choose my words more carefully,  Maybe I should say there is no such thing as "forward market timing".   

XYIN, I am not disbuting the fact that the timing of investment entry and exist can make a significant impact on asset return.  By the way, I did look all the time frame you have suggested, and I found that all those time frame have one thing in-commone (very important); backward looking.  All those time are in the past!! (Therefore my apoloige that my should choose my words more carefully, "There is not such thing as forward market timing".  Anybody can look at a stock/index chart and tell you "If I buy xyz in 01/01/1998 and sell it on 01/01/2000, I will make $$$".  I will call you GOD if you can tell me if I buy/short XYZ on 01/10/2007 and close my position on 01/10/2008, I will make/lose +/- X%.  Making forward forcast is the trick.  Not backward looking.  Remember, I agree with you that timing of investment entry/exit has a sigifcant impact on investment.  However, the determination of entry/exit is not based on market timing, it is based on asset valuation.  Also, what bear market are you talking about?  Equity? Fix-income? Commodity? Real-Estate?  Hedge-Fund?  or other asset class?  As far as my experience goes, I have not see a perfect storm in US market; meaning that every single asset class went down.  If an investor experience had a major loss in a "bear" market, he/she must had a concentration position in that particular market.   Once again, prove that diversification is important.  Typical bear maket in equity mean bull market in other market(bond, commodity, real-estate) becuase the money has to flow somewhere.  As an intelligent investor like yourself, you won't care about that portifilo manager has to say since you have the ability to analyze all information(Rational Investor Theory).  A portiflio that is 100% invested at all time across asset class has a 70% better chance earn a market history return than a portiflio that is moving money from on asset to another.  Let me be careful agine.  A 100% invested portfilio means money is invested in its diversified asset at all time and rebalanced quarterly according to investor's investment return objective and investment constraints.  Enough for now!