Consider
the record, which is pretty stunning. If you'd put $10,000 into the
S&P 500 with a strict sell-in-May, buy-in-October strategy on May
1, 1950, you'd have ended 2006 with more than $600,000, according to
calculations from Ned Davis Research. If you'd done the opposite, and
invested every May 1 and sold every Sept. 1, you'd have $12,083. If
you'd just let it ride in a buy-and-hold strategy, you'd have $129,515,
according to S&P.
There is always some kind of pattern, when you look back. Everyone can do that. You can relate the stock market to Super Bowl too. But what really count is to look at future trend and very few people can do that.
Some patterns are mere coincidence. Others may be real, but will no longer be valuable, when everyone heard about it.
Consider
the record, which is pretty stunning. If you'd put $10,000 into the
S&P 500 with a strict sell-in-May, buy-in-October strategy on May
1, 1950, you'd have ended 2006 with more than $600,000, according to
calculations from Ned Davis Research. If you'd done the opposite, and
invested every May 1 and sold every Sept. 1, you'd have $12,083. If
you'd just let it ride in a buy-and-hold strategy, you'd have $129,515,
according to S&P.
There is always some kind of pattern, when you look back. Everyone can do that. You can relate the stock market to Super Bowl too. But what really count is to look at future trend and very few people can do that.
Some patterns are mere coincidence. Others may be real, but will no longer be valuable, when everyone heard about it.
show your guts, point fingers to all quants, economists, traders, and claim historical track records are just "pure crap" see if anybody give you a sh!t
2004, 05, 06连续三年, 每年都是四五月份全球股市出问题. 当然每次的起因不一样, 04年是受china, india经济放缓的利空消息影响带动整个consumer sector, commodity, transportation等等; 05年是GM downgraded to junk引起的ripple wave; 06年是Emerging markets全面correction, intra-month跌过25%...
Street is used to saying: "Sell in May, buy back in October."
Consider the record, which is pretty stunning. If you'd put $10,000 into the S&P 500 with a strict sell-in-May, buy-in-October strategy on May 1, 1950, you'd have ended 2006 with more than $600,000, according to calculations from Ned Davis Research. If you'd done the opposite, and invested every May 1 and sold every Sept. 1, you'd have $12,083. If you'd just let it ride in a buy-and-hold strategy, you'd have $129,515, according to S&P.
Considering the record, if you put $1 in S&P 500 on Jan 01, 1950 and hold it until Dec 31, 2006, you would have $62.87. Comparing these 2 cases, you will see something.
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-5-11 11:55:58编辑过]
Considering the record, if you put $1 in S&P 500 on Jan 01, 1950 and hold it until Dec 31, 2006, you would have $62.87. Comparing these 2 cases, you will see something.
I think you are right except for that return looks like ex-dividend.
That means market timing is not significant in the long run. But short term you want to filter out the bad downturns.
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-5-11 12:25:46编辑过]
高手云集，我搬个凳子来听。
claim historical track records are just "pure crap" see if anybody give
you a sh!t
1) Pointing fingers is not the right way to show one's guts, just put your money where your word is. I am not selling my holdings this coming month. That says all. If the future will simply follow the same pattern, why would anyone not following it? If everyone is following it, there isn't any money to be made.
2) An economist should not be concerned with the stock market at all, otherwise he is a fake one. Economy and finance are very different subjects. I still remember the fund that hired two Nobel Price winners (economics) that blew up (betting on the wrong side of Lira). The Nobel winners were not so noble after all. They were after the money and the those who lost their investment were after these two guys.
3) I am not sure if "they" will give me a sh!t. But you already did. I cannot blame you, since you are full of it.
know that the amount of information is -log(p) where p is the
probablity of the event of interest. If the event follows a common
pattern (you die if you jump off the top of 100-meter building) that
everyone recognize. Then the amount of info, or value of the info, is
very low---in other words, no money to be made). If the event has an
unusual outcome, say, the person did not die, then you can surprise
everyone and earn big.
Back to "sell in May". Everyone heard
about it. Many indeed follows. It happens that some would choose to
sell just a little bit earlier, say, at the end of April, just to be
safe. If the entire market notices this trend, the fall sell off comes
earlier. But how early can it be? Probably dampens some potential rise
early in the year. Thus, the usual decline will be a minor one.
However, if this year is different---the less probable, but still
possible outcome, then the rise could potentially be very large due to
the rarity.
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-5-12 1:13:41编辑过]
claim historical track records are just "pure crap" see if anybody give
you a sh!t
1) Pointing fingers is not the right way to show one's guts, just put your money where your word is. I am not selling my holdings this coming month. That says all. If the future will simply follow the same pattern, why would anyone not following it? If everyone is following it, there isn't any money to be made.
2) An economist should not be concerned with the stock market at all, otherwise he is a fake one. Economy and finance are very different subjects. I still remember the fund that hired two Nobel Price winners (economics) that blew up (betting on the wrong side of Lira). The Nobel winners were not so noble after all. They were after the money and the those who lost their investment were after these two guys.
3) I am not sure if "they" will give me a sh!t. But you already did. I cannot blame you, since you are full of it.
I think you are right except for that return looks like ex-dividend.
That means market timing is not significant in the long run. But short term you want to filter out the bad downturns.
claim is there is some smart a$$ following the pattern, not everybody.
Sharpen your logic, man.
have only one data point, and I can show you it's not about Lira. Too
lame. BTW, your first sentence is too naive to be argue with.
Yes, there are many smart a$$ out there. Thus making the market very (although not perfectly) efficient, voiding any chance of making money from well known patterns from the perspective of an amauteur investor.
To prove something right, no amount of data can be enough. You need to go through all the logic. However, to prove something wrong, one data point is enough.
The summer-dip pattern of the stock market can be described as a dice (1~6). Say, the market will go up only if 6 is the result. From past experiences, that's a 1/6 chance. And you think you can earn money by betting on 1~5 and not 6? Not really. Since everyone knows about that, the wagers on each of the numbers are not the same, and betting on 6 isn't necessarily a worse decision compared to any other number.
BTW, the US stock market isn't high at all. On the one hand, dow is at all time high, but on the other hand, the USD is very low now. In terms of EURO, dow was flat for the past 4 years. Yes, no gain at all. Indicating that the US economy stagnated and the companies more or less kept their value during the big fall of USD.
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