天哪, 你这么说会害死我滴...我humble opinion, humble.....

我自己不能trade我自己的pick, 给别人看看也就罢了, 否则准死.

你多少买的啊

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[此贴子已经被作者于2011/8/18 17:37:56编辑过]

要是我，可能也等不了到那么高

Thanks for the idea. Can you help me understand the "undervalued" part?

The fund holds 12,478 contracts of CLF7 and has a total net asset of $787.9MM (http://www.unitedstatesoilfund.com/uso_holdings.aspx)

And its market cap is $54.58 X 14,400 = $786MM, just slightly below net asset value

Seem to me this fund is just a bet on the movement of the near month future. ???

Could the widening gap be that the fund was trading above NAV originally but the premium over NAV gradually disappeared?  Just guessing.

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-11-30 19:07:48编辑过]

楼上的, 你说得可能是对的, 不过这个gap在很长一段时间里面不大变化, 直到最近才diverge. 根据holding report, 假设CLF7 price = Cx, USO price = Cu, 如果没有position变化,

Cu = Cx * 12478 / 14400;

因此, gap定义为Cx - Cu = Cx * (14400 - 12478) / 14400 = 0.133Cx. 按说应该和CLF7的price成正比, 比如$70时应该是9.34, 最近的61时应该是8.14.  后者和实际本周的gap非常接近.

我猜想, 你说的USO trading at higher premium earlier很可能是正确的, 另一种可能就是fund在减持contracts增持现金, 也可以起到扩大gap的效果.

纯属一派胡言, 对于我这个门外汉来说就是瞎猜. 有荒谬的地方还请指教.

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-12-1 8:44:18编辑过]