The other side of story is liquidity, which is independent of leverage.  They got involved in so many illiquid instruments, so they eventually became the market and found no one took their chips.  There's only one outlet then.

Back to CNY. Like I said before, the real inflation outpaced USD so much that US tbills can't always be discounted.  Is the inflation in US halted after 17 consecutive rate hikes?  Absolutely no.  If US decides to deflate asset bubble and halt currency slide, then real rates will go up, treasuries will tumble, foreign capital will move back to US, and CNY will stop appreciation and become stable. 

However, if US wants to avoid bursting asset bubble so as to keep paper money of everyone and keep consumer sector from tanking, the only way to offset double deficit is to print money.  In this scenario, greenbacks will continue to depreciate against all other currencies, and even decouple from precious metals and crude oil trades. That way, there's only one direction for CNY, that is up.  

Another factor in the equation is health of china's banking sector.  How big portion of NPL could be in their books?  The Big 4's busy selling them to foreign banks and asset mgmt firms.  It's frenzy like no tomorrow.  If real estate market tanks in china itself, there's much to add onto CNY's pressure.

好文一个，研究研究

That is possible. But as I mentioned, if USD keeps going down, currencies such as GBP or YEN are still better choices than CNY。

Personally, I believe that the US government will print more money (thus causing more inflation) in the short term (2006-2008). But eventually they will raise interest rates and save the dollar (maybe post 2008).

I agree with this.  Today's rates still very low if put into historical level.  Another hard fact is, every time there's commodity bubble like we just experienced, the real rates always zoomed following that.  This time should not be an exception.  It's only a matter of timing.

We can make a bull case for Euro because of probabilities to become a replacement in crude oil/gold trades.  That'd be a real disaster for USD.

Why are currencies such as GBP or YEN still better choices than CNY?

While United States owes a lot of money to foreigners, Japan has a huge domestic debt. I'm bullish on CNY and agree with Jimmy Rogers that CNY could become a major currency in the world (of course after it starts to float).

The banking sector is a problem in China.  But I think the sector is improving, and foreign ownership would help.  Plus, they are state-owned and the state can always inject money into the banks if they are about to go belly up because of non-performing loans. The concern used to be that people will rush to exchange RMB into USD if RMB floats.  But now a lot of Chinese people seem to prefer CNY over USD, at least from what I saw.  My banking friends in China also confirmed that.

1）人民币不可自由兑换，估计如果自由兑换，肯定会暴跌。当然，会比苏联卢布好，毕竟中国经济已经有了基础，不像苏联当年。不过，1：50到1：100还是很现实的。不管你银行的朋友怎么说，中国历届的领导从邓小平到江泽民朱镕基到温家宝都还是抑制了自由兑换的冲动，认为风险太大。要是能保证1：20之内，恐怕温家宝也早行动了。

2）中国税制不完善。政府需要钱时，只有靠印钱解决。不像美国有收税和印钱两个来源。

3）就像你说的，国有银行一旦遇到危险，政府就会注资去救。这恰恰是通货膨胀的根源。要保证币值，一定不能这么做！该烂掉的国企就让他烂掉。政府税收又没有那么多，所谓注资不就是印钱吗？就是我原来说的靠通货膨胀解决危机。

4）想知道人民币走势，看看南美和东南亚就知道了。在经济发展期，貌似很好，但因为是出口型贸易，必然不能对其出口目的地大幅升值。一旦经济危机，却会大规模印钱以帮助国企或准国企度过难关，形成对硬通货的阶梯式下跌，请参考第一页图片。人民币从有数据的1981年到现在2006年，对世界硬通货连跌25年，实在难以有信心。

1）人民币不可自由兑换，估计如果自由兑换，肯定会暴跌。当然，会比苏联卢布好，毕竟中国经济已经有了基础，不像苏联当年。不过，1：50到1：100还是很现实的。不管你银行的朋友怎么说，中国历届的领导从邓小平到江泽民朱镕基到温家宝都还是抑制了自由兑换的冲动，认为风险太大。要是能保证1：20之内，恐怕温家宝也早行动了。

Why? Who will be dumping RMB?

2）中国税制不完善。政府需要钱时，只有靠印钱解决。不像美国有收税和印钱两个来源。

But the government is going through privatization: meaning gov sells things (land, companies) to people for cash. Imagine if the US gov owns 10% of the land in U.S., how rich will they be?

3）就像你说的，国有银行一旦遇到危险，政府就会注资去救。这恰恰是通货膨胀的根源。要保证币值，一定不能这么做！该烂掉的国企就让他烂掉。政府税收又没有那么多，所谓注资不就是印钱吗？就是我原来说的靠通货膨胀解决危机。

Agree.  Should let them go private, go public, or die.

Also Japan did it for years after their bubble bursted.  Inflation was low and still is low.

4）想知道人民币走势，看看南美和东南亚就知道了。在经济发展期，貌似很好，但因为是出口型贸易，必然不能对其出口目的地大幅升值。一旦经济危机，却会大规模印钱以帮助国企或准国企度过难关，形成对硬通货的阶梯式下跌，请参考第一页图片。人民币从有数据的1981年到现在2006年，对世界硬通货连跌25年，实在难以有信心。

Can't argue with that.  You have a good point there.

强贴，收藏了。。。。。。。。。。。