PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations of the sales and trading desk.

NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, April 1, 2014

微信公众平台 USOPTIONS

COMMENTS

· Somewhat stealthily, equities reach new highs with Tech leading the move. Almost every sector up with tech +1.5%, consumer serv +1.1%, and healthcare +0.73. Maybe April is the month where a solid uptrend emerges. Better question, what’s the best NFP number for stocks? Given the last FOMC probably 150-200k; a Goldilocks not too hot, not too cold type scenario. Closes: SPX +0.70% at 1885.52; DJIA +0.46% to 16,532.61, NASDAQ +1.64% to 4268.04.

· The VIX is down 0.78 to 13.10.

· USDJPY higher again (+0.4%) as clients look to get long ahead of NFP later this week. Our trading desk is long and looking to add if we can break 103.75/80. EURUSD rallies intraday but fails to break above 1.3815/20 and we think it will continue to struggle ahead of the ECB on Thursday. Given the EONIA spike on month end there is definitely room for the ECB to act. EM strength continues: USDTRY trades sub 2.14, USDKRW sub 1060, and USDMXN below the 200dma at 13.0510 to a low sub 13.03.

· Treasuries sold off 3.5bps in 10s on a relatively quiet day in which 10s traded in a 3bp range during the NY session. Flows in cash were skewed to better buying, despite the price action.

· Brent and WTI both move consistently lower throughout the day on what appeared to be primarily technicals. $100.00 in May WTI and 106.00 in Brent acted as support briefly intraday but the selling pressure proved to be too great as WTI is now 99.57 and Brent now trades 105.54. The grains complex followed through yesterday’s price action after the USDA report as May beans traded up 1.33% and May corn traded up 1%. The precious complex holds its breath in anticipation of NFP this coming Friday as gold trade in a $10 range.

· Tomorrow brings US ISM-NY, Factory Orders, and ADP; China Non-manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI; Eurozone PPI; UK Construction PMI and Home Prices; Spain Unemployment; Brazil IP; Australia Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Norway Unemployment; and Japan PMI. In terms of policy, COPOM will announce the SELIC target - we expect another 25bp hike to 11.00% and the committee to leave the door open for additional hikes. Additionally we will hear speeches from RBA Governor Stevens, the Fed's Lockhart, and the IMF's Largarde.

HIGHLIGHTS

· Bloomberg: Rising Manufacturing Orders Signal Further U.S. Growth: Economy

· Reuters: U.S. public pension gap widended to nearly $1 trillion in fiscal year 2012

· Bloomberg: ECB’s Constancio Says No Deflation Seen as Recovery Gains

· ISM Manufacturing: 53.7 – lower than expected. Consensus 54.0. Previous 53.2.

CURRENCIES

CURRENCY VOL

FLOWS (BONDS, EQUITIES, COMMODITIES)

US BONDS – 10 YR UST Down -0-10 at 99-30 YTM 2.756% 30 YR UST Down -0-28 at 100-11 YTM 3.606%

DJIA Up +74.95 at 16,532.61 (+0.46%) S&P Up +13.18 at 1,885.52 (+0.70%) NASDAQ Up +69.05 at 4,268.04 (+1.64%)

GOLD Down -3.20 at 1,280.70 (-0.25%) WTI Down -2.23 at 99.35 (-2.20%)

AMERICAS

· Bloomberg: Rising Manufacturing Orders Signal Further U.S. Growth: Economy. “The U.S. manufacturing expansion accelerated in March, driven by gains in production and orders, in the latest sign that the economy is shaking off its winter doldrums and building momentum into the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s index increased to 53.7 from 53.2 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 54. Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group LLC and Toyota Motor Corp. today reported March sales that beat analysts’ estimates as consumers, whose confidence is at a six-year high, returned to auto dealers and shopping malls as the weather warmed.”

· Reuters: U.S. public pension gap widended to nearly $1 trillion in fiscal year 2012. “The unfunded liabilities of public-employee pension plans rose by 10 percent in fiscal 2012 to a record $914 billion, hit by low investment returns, missed contributions and unfunded benefits, underscoring the pension funding crisis in U.S. states and cities, a report by the Pew Charitable Trusts said. Factoring in promises made by local governments to fund pension benefits for their employees, total pension debt climbed to over $1 trillion as of June 30, 2012, the end of the most recent budget year for which data is available. “Even though we've seen recent market gains and reforms, the funding gap has continued to grow for pensions,” said David Draine, a senior researcher at the Pew Center on the States. Pew's study does not reflect the hefty gains in equity markets since the second half of 2012.”

· Reuters: Obamacare enrollment exceeds seven million target despite setback. “President Barack Obama's national healthcare program signed up more than 7 million people by the last day of March, the White House said on Tuesday, notching a rare victory after a months-long, glitch-filled rollout of the law. Obama is scheduled to make a statement about the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare, at 4:15 p.m. EDT in the White House. His remarks could be the start of a victory lap for the administration, which suffered from the botched unveiling of the program's primary website, HealthCare.gov, and wavering support from Americans years after the U.S. Congress passed the healthcare law over Republican objections.”

WORLD

· Bloomberg: ECB’s Constancio Says No Deflation Seen as Recovery Gains. “The euro area will probably avoid outright deflation as a “soft” economic recovery gradually reduces spare capacity in the economy, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said. “The prospects for inflation are a cause for concern,” Constancio said at a press conference in Athens today, a day after figures showed euro-area inflation slowed in March to 0.5 percent, the lowest level in more than four years. “If indeed the recovery consolidates, it means that the slack in the recovery is reduced, and that will help on that score.” The Frankfurt-based ECB meets this week for its monthly monetary-policy meeting against a backdrop of improving economic data with gains in prices lagging behind.”

· Reuters: European ministers take sobering look at social impact of crisis. “The economic crisis in Europe has put 6 million people out of work and driven others into poverty, according to a think-tank study looking into the social impact of the slump that was examined by EU finance ministers for the first time on Tuesday. As host, Greece, the first euro zone country to be bailed out during the crisis, put it on the agenda of the regular meeting of EU finance ministers that has more usually focused on appeasing financial markets with tough spending reforms. The meeting was taking place a short distance from Syntagma Square, the focus of often violent clashes over austerity measures imposed under the country's bailout, although protests had been banned for this meeting.”