heavysnow
Believe it or not, 10% annual returns are the average
3426
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2006-01-12 15:51:00
几星期前发了一个“如何在美国勤俭持家自动成为百万富翁?”的文章,里面提到了10% annual return,许多朋友对这个return很是怀疑,今天发现这篇文章,里面说的是10% annual returns是average。当然有的人的return会高些,有的达不到10%,关键还是看自己的资金放在哪里,以及它的performance等等。2005年已经过去了,大家可以说说自己去年里investment的return,有好的funds、经验可以拿出来和大家分享,有奖励哟
USATODAY.com
[fly]Believe it or not, 10% annual returns are the average[/fly]
A: You wouldn't believe the deluge of reader e-mail I got when I mentioned a 10% average annual return in a recent Ask Matt column. It was an interesting response, because I was using 10% mainly for demonstration purposes.
But I stand by 10% as a reasonable expectation for returns for investors that have a diversified basket of stocks. And I know, it doesn't seem remotely possible, given how ho-hum returns were for large-cap stocks in 2005.
Many investors have been frustrated with the market's recent lackluster returns. But, statistics show that large-cap stocks (measured by the Standard & Poor's 500) have produced 10.4% yearly returns on average over the past 79 years through 2004, according to data from IFA.com.
Yes, there will be years below 10.4% and years above 10.4%, but the average (geometric mean to be precise) is 10.4%.
Think of it this way: Flip a coin. I have no idea if the next flip will be a heads or a tails. And yes, it's possible you might flip a heads three, four or even five times in a row. But, if you keep flipping over and over, on average, you will get a heads 50% of the time and a tails 50% of the time. This law of statistics is the reason why casinos in Las Vegas and insurance companies are so profitable.
What about inflation? Certainly, the declining purchasing power of the dollar over time does erode returns. To be exact, the 10.4% annual return of the S&P 500 is actually 7.2% if you adjust for inflation, according to data from Standard & Poor's.
But keep in mind that just investing in the S&P 500 is not adequate. You need to add other asset classes to your portfolio, including small-cap stocks, which have returned 9.1% returns on average a year even after inflation. Foreign stocks and emerging markets stocks, which have a place in many investors' portfolios, have done even better.
But how do you put this truth to work for you? The secret is staying invested in a low-cost basket of properly selected index funds. To get maximum returns for the lowest amount of risk, you'll want to be invested in not just large-cap stocks but also large-cap value stocks, small-cap and small-cap value funds. Depending on your age and taste for risk, you may also want some foreign exposure.
To be sure, you'll want to use online tools or study to get your ideal asset allocation. But if you do this correctly and carefully, statistics tell us properly diversified portfolios can achieve 10% or greater returns over the long run. Again, the longer you are invested the greater chance you have at actually earning the expected return.
Try not to get frustrated. I know it has been a difficult five years for large-cap stocks (keep in mind, though, that small and foreign stocks have done very well). But having a sound plan and sticking with it is the only way to achieve financial success.
Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at [email protected].
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-1-13 1:08:03编辑过]
呵呵,我先来吧。
我现在的投资都在退休账户上。是2003年在Vanguard开的。以前有一个401K,一次性转进来了。大概是在六月的时候转的。今天计算了一下,2004年12%,2005年9%,平均10.5%。我的投资组合是:
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund 20%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund 35%
Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund 25%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund 20%
这个投资组合按照Vanguard的说法,从1960年到2004年,average return 10.1%。10.1%的return,33年以后是23倍。每年放一万,扣掉通货膨胀,等于退休的时候每年拿回现在的七万啦。当然也不多,不能包治百病,不过对于我来说,也够了。
奖励第一个发言人!
据说Vanguard的funds已及管理收费等等都很不错的。看ggzh这两年的投资return和文章中所说的return非常接近啊。不知道那个Total Bond Market Index Fund的return怎么样,我觉得可以转移一些那里的$到International Fund里
谢谢信息分享,happy investing and enjoy the sweet returns!
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-1-14 17:06:50编辑过]
10% to 15% is the average return.
mutual fund wise, in recent years, energy/resource has the best performance. Average arround 40% in recent 3 years.
the 10%~15% average for broad market is based on SP history performemce. It's like 12% historically.
On a side note, 75% mutual fund can't beat market average return. Which means, each year 3 of 4 fund manager's performance is worse than market.
For smart money, they goes to hedge fund or other higher return investment. Mutual fund managers are full of sucks. But it does have one benefit, the risk is much lower.
It's good for retirement planing, to keep your hard earned money value, at least balance out the inflation.
到底了
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