I don't think your fact is quite true. And regardless that fact, why there are many more republican presidents than democrats presidents after WWII? People aren't stupid.
people are not stupid, but most of them have short-memory.
其实这在学术界也是个myth，也有很多种解释。一种是culture overrides economy，不过这个我觉得不convincing，起码对于我来讲，什么gay marriage, anti-abortion都是added benefits，经济才是重头。还有一个我觉得有点道理，就是大部分的大选年如果是Republican执政，当年的经济还算不错，所以老百姓就忘了前几年的苦日子了，呵呵。当然，这次好像完全相反，所以美国人估计都要捧Obama的臭脚了。
The fact is, Democratic presidents have consistently higher economic growth and consistently lower unemployment than Republican presidents. If you add in a time lag, you get the same result. If you eliminate the best and worst presidents, you get the same result. If you take a look at other economic indicators, you get the same result. There's just no way around it: Democratic administrations are better for the economy than Republican administrations.
show me your model. Let me see where the adjustments are. Otherwise I don't believe it.
show me your model. Let me see where the adjustments are. Otherwise I don't believe it.
I already showed you hard data, it depends on you to believe it or not.
BTWI: this is meta-analysis
BTWII, your argument is rather weak to make here. Nothing personal.
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-9-11 21:17:35编辑过]
people are not stupid, but most of them have short-memory.
其实这在学术界也是个myth，也有很多种解释。一种是culture overrides economy，
还是有可能的
不是说ohio得很多地发
不管选什么政治人物， 区议员，石议员。。。都是现问
他是不是christan 啥啥的
I already showed you hard data, it depends on you to believe it or not.
BTWI: this is meta-analysis
BTWII, your argument is rather weak to make here. Nothing personal.
you showed me the result. you didn't show me the process or the model. am i correct?
you showed me the result. you didn't show me the process or the model. am i correct?
咖啡因mm，这个是meta-analysis, as I said many times. Pls do homework on what meta-analysis is.
It is time series data, so accounts for economic cycles. Economic cycle presents for both parties, right?
And your statement of lagged effect is also counted (Clinton created tech & housing bubbles...)
okay, let me ask you in a diffent way. for instance, how was the housing bubble effect adjusted in the model? by how much and by what factors?
............= =
又来了....
无论哪个上台，打仗，加税都逃不掉...............
咖啡因mm，这个是meta-analysis, as I said many times. Pls do homework on what meta-analysis is.
thanks:)
wiki:
A weakness of the method is that sources of bias are not controlled by the method. A good meta-analysis of badly designed studies will still result in bad statistics. Robert Slavin has argued that only methodologically sound studies should be included in a meta-analysis, a practice he calls 'best evidence meta-analysis'. Other meta-analysts would include weaker studies, and add a study-level predictor variable that reflects the methodological quality of the studies to examine the effect of study quality on the effect size. Another weakness of the method is the heavy reliance on published studies, which may increase the effect as it is very hard to publish studies that show no significant results. This publication bias or "file-drawer effect" (where non-significant studies end up in the desk drawer instead of in the public domain) should be seriously considered when interpreting the outcomes of a meta-analysis. Because of the risk of publication bias, many meta-analyses now include a "failsafe N" statistic that calculates the number of studies with null results that would need to be added to the meta-analysis in order for an effect to no longer be reliable.
到底了
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