这个IOWA poll以前确实很准，2016年精准预测trump在Iowa大胜。如果这次结果没有掺杂其他因素的话，那Trump在中西部这些州都危险了
为什么MN比起WI还浅蓝呢？那里一般比起其他中西部州蓝，今年副总统还是那里州长
输赢很重要，赢多少不重要，哈哈。
👍👍👍
哈哈。如果哈里斯能赢Iowa, Trump就能赢Virginia了。看看另一个poll吧
Donald Trump grabs lead over Kamala Harris in IOWA - beats his 2016 and 2020 margin in the state.
Trump: 53.2% (+10.5)
Harris: 42.7%
2020: Trump+8.2
2016: Trump+9.4
Unlike some pollsters, Emerson has given us the crosstabs. They are as follows:
SAMPLE: R36%/D32%/I32%
2020 VOTE: Trump+8
Emerson College | 11/1-2 | N=800LV
你是预测Trump大胜吧。告诉你一个好消息，今天kalshi 赌市已经翻转了，Harris 占优，所以是你们赶紧买进trump的好时机，买一块得两块，前些天连一块五都得不到。发财的机会来了，这个网站美国人可以买。
me3 发表于 2024-11-02 22:01
我不做预测。只是反对不理智的hyper feeling-----反对看到一个点，就一惊一乍的下结论。
老实说，我没有那么大的妄想，270就足够
我担心270又要闹好久。。。
哈哈。如果哈里斯能赢Iowa, Trump就能赢Virginia了。看看另一个poll吧
Donald Trump grabs lead over Kamala Harris in IOWA - beats his 2016 and 2020 margin in the state.
Trump: 53.2% (+10.5)
Harris: 42.7%
2020: Trump+8.2
2016: Trump+9.4
Unlike some pollsters, Emerson has given us the crosstabs. They are as follows:
SAMPLE: R36%/D32%/I32%
2020 VOTE: Trump+8
Emerson College | 11/1-2 | N=800LV
wintergreen457 发表于 2024-11-02 22:23
你引用的这个pollster在Iowa不能跟selzer poll比。2016年selzer poll出来以后希拉里才发现后院起火了。当然前提是这次她不会拿自己多年的信誉冒险而参杂其他的东西
已经开始要耍赖了
Leaked recording of GA county election official Julie Adams, on possible post-Nov 5 plans: “Maybe we all find discrepancies & we file an immediate injunction. Maybe we go to the press. Maybe, when we’re certifying, we say we’re certifying under protest.” https://t.co/xYCQqMPhvd
— Jonathan Blitzer (@JonathanBlitzer) November 2, 2024
https://x.com/jonathanblitzer/status/1852721337959371090
到底了
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