lanoiry
美国已经光速步入共产主义
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2008-09-12 15:05:00
Lehman还大量招entry level呢，今年经济真是不好，比上半年还差，2月份时career service上面招intern的还收国际学生的现在full time反而要求要有身份，大的咨询公司full time招的人比intern还少，BCG甚至取消了on campus interview slot，wall street上这些公司，除了高盛和花旗还热闹其他都蔫了，accounting career service的人都说今年对国际学生是个招工噩梦。
as far as I heard. Most of the street firms and financial companies are having Hiring freeze now...even promotion freeze for senior officer.
不好意思啊，挖了个小坑就逃了。题目是夸张啦，但是我觉得政府管的也太多了点。
不过管也有道理的。大家说不会对老百姓有什么影响。。。LEH的counter party risk非常大的。他家如果倒了，和他家做生意的商业银行有的就也会到。会多米诺骨牌一样最后波及到老百姓的。而且那样的波及更可怕。纳税人的负担会更重。
而且不是Fed在bear之后又那个discount window么？LEH在里面放了很多securities,如果他倒了，fed手里的那些抵押根本不够还债的。fed自己就会有经济损失了。
不过我觉得里面潜在的问题就是conflict of interest.fuld在纽约fed里面是有职位的。
虽然市值现在也就三个多billion,但是怕的是它balance sheet上面的很多东西。没人知道买了这个是赔本还是亏本买卖。fed现在还没说给一个backing,但是如果没人买的话，fed back stop是肯定的。我觉得除了bofa,nomura这几家银行外，GS小有可能，另外也有可能会是PE公司甚至大的Money manager.因为LEH现在手里的东西需要一个很大的公司来承担和管理。$32bn的commercial mortgage whole loans around the world一般公司是管理不了的。我不觉得boa有这个能力。除非30cents on the dollar卖掉。
虽说LEH是我们的竞争对手，但是这个礼拜还是感觉很难受。100多年的老字号啊。就这么垮了。而且还是市场流言和CEO的面子啥的给挤垮的。
这种局面，没有人乐意看到。
有人还说下一个会是ML。希望他们不要重蹈覆辙。大家一定要挺住。
No one will touch Leh unless Gov has back-ups. Their B/S is a lot mess. Although, markets are more calm than the time Bear Stern collapse. Ultimately, the burden is shifted to the tax-payers. I'm pretty bear on ML too.
This recession is worse than 2001, steping into crisis for a year long while Fed's rate cut fail to compensate the banking woes. No bottoming in the near future.
mm分析的有道理. Leh的股票AH的时候最高达到几乎80美元一股，今天竟然跌破4元一股... Wamu更是跌到不到2元一股... 要知道这些都是美国经济的大头.
Leh早在年初就已经不被看好了，垮台风声不断，但没想到来得那么快. mm说的关于ML的预言也是我所听说的，估计ML这次要挺过去可能会走向自我切割的这条路... 不过希望ML一定要挺住.
而且听说大选后经济可能会更差...
Sigh, shorted WAMU when it's in the 18s...covered when it's 14...Should be more patient as in only half year, it becomes $2. Short Bear Stern when they are in 20s, also covered too soon.
楼上的妹妹，我插一句嘴（虽然我不是caffeine mm那样街上的工作的），bailout的具体方案没出来，可以肯定政府救的是F&F发行的bond.其他的，preferred stockholder, common shareholder,估计会被wipe out.
Preferred stockholder is not going to be wiped out. Common's are.
我们的外汇资产又要缠和一下子哈，不知道是好事还是坏事呢，黑石的教训还没记住
Re. ...Instead of buying lehman, I think CIC should take this time to recuite as many street-talents as possible. Their investment strategy is .........sigh...
I truly don't believe that LEH deserved it.
I also feel sad for LEH. Mrkt is tough. I first thought they might survive by selling their cash machines - Later proved wrong. mrkt simply didn't buy it, share price is nose diving. I also felt hard for them b/c they are not the first nor the last. After bailout of Bear Sterns, FF, how many more "bandeid - bailout" can the gov afford. When JP bought BS, gov has agreed to absorb $29 bln potential losses and opend the discount window.
I feel like LEH might even be sold in less then $10 a share, which is not fun at all.
我本来想的比这个多的多，可能因为老听着街上怎么怎么然后一群人转专业的，造成的一种误解吧。如果１０多万的话，也没什么特别的。呵呵。
在leh这个问题上，没人想承担责任（take the bad assets)。好像chinese development bank 是barclay的股东？
哎，BOA已经买了ML，真是戏剧化啊！
不过还没有人买LEH, 时间不多了，也许真的只能申请破产了，可怜呀！
到底了
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