xyin
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3010
27
2006-05-23 00:11:00
Good job! That means you find new ways to look at the market.
The VIX is gauging the UNCERTAINTY of the market. As you can see, noboday will know where the market is heading. So it is not surprising that VIX is breaking higher. However, compared around 2000, it is still relatively low. At that period, VIX was about 40, now it is only about 18.
I think things will settledown in the next two weeks, without the VIX breaking new highs.
I really admire you.
I came to almost same conclusion as you today. i don't think current economy justify such sharp correction. if it moves down slowly over time, I will be more bearish. However this sharp big correction without really bad economy data, maybe mean market is over reacting. but what do I know. market will tell me.
Now everything smells like the Summer of 1987. I think some time around late Summer/early Fall the market may see a short, sharp and very violent drop, may send the VIX to low 30.
This will be a buying opportunity. However, the afterwards rally may see a major rotation of market leadership.
i think it's far less severe than 1987. I don't know why those 2 are compared frequently.
basically i am getting more and more bullish as the market keep dropping. i am looking into entry point soon(maybe a few weeks, maybe longer.)
ok. i don't know what will happen tomorrow. as we know, still today there is no clear explanation of 1987 crash (well, you may say there are theories, but to me none are completely convincing. so I think it is still quite a mystery.)
I think it IS far less severe. but I cann't say whether tomorrow it will still be quite less severe.
1987 Black Monday 23% drop in one day without real bad economical data. Did we experience any drop even close to that scale during the past few weeks? i'd say no.
deleted.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-25 23:42:09编辑过]
Your "philoshophy" is all empty, and is well documented in behaviour finance. Basically what you said is you've no idea what's going on and hope you're lucky. No surprise. When TIE put options clearly implied a 23% volatility, you insited any correction won't be >10%.
The BS model consistently underestimates the occurence of "small probability" events in US market, so much so that one school of people think it may misses a variable or two. I don't know what's the basis of your beliefs.
huh, my empty philosophy seemed to work for me pretty well.
your statement clearly proved my point.
and you ignored the fact that when I said i think a 10% correction the most, TIE price was 65, did u see a 65-6.5 = 58.5 (pre-split) correction? I say NO. and now the price is almost 74 (pre-split adjust, that is 36.78 as to now). that was before the huge run up. and Did i predict the huge run up? NO. when i saw it, I was out COMPLETELY 88. 87, 86. next day it was all the way up to 95!
Did u, sir, the scholar, predict the huge run up based on your model? NO! if you predict the huge run up, you were NEVER by put at 65? were you?
so i let market tell me it is time. I rided TIE from early Jan when it was 30ish, and all the way up to 87. and you on the other hand, sat on the 65 put till it rushed to 95!! you say your school sucks.
so please when you think you know too much, you probably know too little.
and I have always said I am extremely lucky this year that I caught TIE. But if you think I am ignorantly lucky, you are wrong. I kept making money in the down market. However, i have not caughte something like TIE after i sold it. I am constantly make money almost every day. Am I lucky or my EMPTY model actually works at least for ME?
whatever matter to you must be different from me. cuz I want to make money from the market. I made 550-600% just from TIE, you sir on the other hand, IF YOU DID sit on your put position made 20-30% on that position only. MY ACCOUNT up 550-600% this year!!
Easy, easy, guys. Just pure discussions. I like atmosphere here.
One factor leading to 1987 crach is immature program trading at that time, as cascade effect triggered a lot of sell orders and it is more like an liquidity-driven event. Today's market is far more sophiscated, so we might not see another 15%+ down day like this.
But, this economy has its own serious problems. Some are not seen even in past bubble bursts. Feds deliberately created another bubble and faked recovery after 00-02 crash. The net result is irreversible credit system failure. Although default rate is still at historical lows, we might see it creeping up in the near future. Current high GDP growth is generated by multiple expansion and cheap credit, not corporate re-investment. Real inflation-adjusted household income is declining year over year while nearly all asset prices are inflating. When an economy is trying to keep its growth with huge negative account balance and huge trade deficit, there're only 2 outlets: deflating asset prices, or deflating currency.
great post! see federal reserve web site. there are so much data out there for us to dig out what is happening. or sometimes, when some data should be there and not there. should it tell us something also?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
I would not go any further from here, as I am not eco or finance, or investment major(if there is any) hehe..
i don't think deflation will happen tho, i think the opposite is inevitably happening and keep going.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-25 23:41:23编辑过]
deleted.
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-25 23:40:32编辑过]
到底了
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