再补充一句， time the market不是说每天都作买卖， 其实一年到头基本上也就是1-2次行情。 401k 这样的退休帐户切忌赔钱。 现在世道好大家没有这个远虑。很多人看不到这一点。

我每次说time the market, 总是被人批， 嘻嘻。 不过还是乐此不疲。

以下这个帖子说明为什么不能赔钱

if during the 20 year time frame, say 4 year bear, 3 year bull, (roughly). if this 20 year started with a bear,

4 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 2 (2.67 bull, 3 whole bear market)

if starts with a bull, 3 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 3 (3 whole bull, 2.75 bear)

say in bull market, return is 50%, bear return is -20%

if you have 10k, at the end of the 20 year, you have:

if you have 10k, at the end of the 20 year, you have:

if start with bear market, if you don't time the market, you will end up with

10 (0.8)^3 (1.5)^2 (1.5 * 2/3) = 11.52k

if start with bull market, if you don't time the market, you will end up with

10 (1.5) ^3 (0.8)^2 (0.8 * 3/4) = 12.96k

if you time the market, but timing is not perfect, (nobody can), so you get 40% return on the bull market, and you avoid loss on the bear market.
for the first case, you got 2.67 bull
10K (1.4)^2.67 = 24.55k

for the second case, you get 3 whole bull
10k (1.4)^3 = 27.44k

so now you can tell the difference.

for individual invester, we do not have 50 years. If you have been through the last dot come crash, and lost 80% of the money, you may never get the chance to come back.

Legitimate scam, that's what many market ananysis or MF manager want you to believe, so-called invest in long term. for many of us here, we are young, we dont have too much money. we have enough time to start from 0, but for many others, this is not the case.

Why do I say 20 year time frame, most of us will not start serious investing until early 30, this is when you have a stable job, and start to make significant more than you spend. say you invest till some time in early or late 50s, you've got roughly 20-25 years.

去年5-7月股市最低，所以max contribution(25%)很合算的。我一般月份就是6%, 股市低的时候就max out. 这样不到年底就max out 了。你要和你的公司benefit dept 问清楚，是不是max out 以后公司那部份的match 还是继续， 如果是就可以这样作， 如果不是你就要稍微小心一些， 不要miss 了公司match 的那个部份。

不要小看这个， 这个我call it passive timing, 就这个时间久了return 和一般平均的每个月放一样的相差相当客观。 这个方法我还没有看到有人用。。。(也许我孤陋寡闻)。

一般市场有10%down, 我就max contribution 了， 去年dow 11600 --> 10600， 我就实施了这个计划

每个策略都有适用范围， 这个只适用于大势还在强势。大势走弱应当按兵不动， 以静制动

"

I normally do not try to predict the market (when I do, i normally wrong, like end of last year). so at the beginning of the year, I do not have a plan as to when to max the contribution. In may, when market gave a pretty clear sign, and dropped. the drop happend so fast and market was down 10% very quickly, so I max the contribution rate (25% of salary). my 401k any change to the account take effect in a matter of a few days. so i was able to react to quickly

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-13 20:23:11编辑过]

以下是引用boat在2007-1-13 10:16:00的发言：

xyin mm, bear hug !!

谢谢你说的这么仔细， 我想再问个问题， 我们的401K 有 fidelity,vanguard 和 tiaa-cref 3家的几个fund 来选， 我原来害怕放一家里如果这家出事了， 比如真的倒闭了，那我的钱不是全完了？ 毕竟是多少年以后的事情呢。 所以， 我分别放了2家； 现在， 那个tiaa-cref 差得很， fidelity 要好一些， 所以， 我想是不是全放一起呢？

我的问题， 1) 是不是这种公司不会倒闭？ 我好像没看见有人耽心我的这个问题， 大概我杞人忧天了。 2) 你知道哪家要好一些吗？ 3) 如果我把在tiaa-cref 的钱转到fidelity里， 都是401K的帐户， 有什么惩罚吗？ 我是指费用？

希望更多的MM能来讨论讨论， 让我们在2007年里发财吧。

我对MF知识几乎等于0。 所以不知道哪一家好。 会不会倒闭我也不太清楚。不过我知道2000年 dot come crash 后很多 fund 消失了， 至于投资者有没有recover 一些损失， 我想可能不重要吧。 就是recover一些， 和最初的投资相比也布置一提了。

你没有杞人忧天, 所以要keep an eye on your investment. I would not touch a MF that does not have at least 10 year tracking history. 很多人没有意识到很多fung已经消失了， 看到的只是市场上的fund 越来越多， 在下一个crash 之后还会有多少存活下来？ 我们现在的sample 是在激烈竞争中生存下来的fund + new fund (established from 2002). because the past 4 good years, now we see mutual fund performance really well. but the sample is twisted, if we include the disppeared funds , 然后把时间跨度延长到下一个熊市结束， 你的结论就会完全不一样