xyin
不知道大家有没有留意这只股票
2060
16
2007-10-16 09:16:00
跑题一下, iPhone 在 AT&T的 EDGE network也没大家说的这么差呀, 就是慢了一点点.......
其实AT&T已有3G了, 但iPHone就是不support 3G....
本来我不想讲， 你提了苹果， 我觉得还是提醒你一下
DRYS 和苹果这样的股票油本质区别， 他是周期性很强的股票， 这次起来有很大程度上和中国印度大量的基础建设有关， 但是不能改变它周期性股票的本质， 只可能拉长周期， 曲终人散的日子早晚会来。 不要幻想自己会找到bigger fool to carry the bag. 我不是说已经到了， 但是泡沫破灭以前总是会越吹越大的。 我给你一个bench mark, 我去年大量的投资了tie, 在过去铁在周期最高点PE应该是一位数，周期高峰过去后大概应该在10几出头。 所以你可以看到这个航空业的高速发展对这个行业的valuation 确实有很大的改变， 但是现在大家都逃不掉扩张后价格走软然后下跌的宿命
这种股票一旦周期见头， 回让你陪的血本不回。
我不愿意评论这样的股票的原因是因为判断周期见顶几乎是个艺术， 是很难说的。所以一般都会找来很多砖头。
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-10-16 9:23:40编辑过]
出了drys，我还懊悔的是VMW，当时我好朋友特意打电话来让我准备好现金买IPO的，结果IPO是她估计的1倍多，我chicken了一下就再也赶不上趟了，这支股票简直疯长
现在P/E很高了，但是这两天回落了我心又痒了
quick money quick go.
the best way to make money is hold on a stock, goes up every 2 dollars, then comes back a dollar, and up 2 dollars, then comes back a dollar. over long period of time. maybe double in 2 years. you sleep at night, no worries. very boring but the best way.
VMW i won't dare to hold over a week. i will always be worried when the bubble will burst. yes,it may shoot to 500 before it comes back, but it may burst tomorrow. Do i want to be the one holding the bag? No. Am i naive to think there will be a bigger fool? no.
DT is ok for VMW tho. lots of volatility if you know how to profit from it. but, trust me, i have not seen very many ppl able to do it over long time. DT traders often burn out in few years. You have not seen a DT guru like Warren Buffet still working at 80s, huh?
Put in this way, WB could lose his pants if he started to do DT...lol
hehe,, i'd like to put in this way, i never saw a 80 years old DT trader... i guess he lost his pants long time ago
到底了
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