我最近在rebalance我的各种账户，有一些发现想给大家分享一下，投资需谨慎，本贴纯粹是讨论，不构成任何投资建议

下面直接说我观察到的事实，如果 MAGA夺权成功，美国和世界宏观经济走向

1 根据musk的多次不同场合的言论，MAGA在经济上应该要走极端冒险路线，类似阿根廷的米勒

2 最近3周 bond市场产生异象，long sovereign bond被big whales巨额dump

3 着重关注明年1月2好到期的debt ceiling。MAGA控制的众议院公开说了会可以让美债进入default

关于1: 参考musk昨天的回帖，和前几天的言论

言论 1: Here''s audio of Elon Musk saying during his telephone town hall that electing Trump will bring "temporary hardship"

言论2: If Trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations, combined with Elon hacking away at the government, firing people and reducing the deficit - there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy - this economy propped up with debt (generating asset bubbles) and artificially suppressed wages (as a result of illegal immigration). Markets will tumble. 

musk回复：sounds about right

下面怎么布局，大家可以各抒己见，我就不能直接建议了，我不是licensed financial planner