牛顿炒股票的故事

https://pubs.aip.org/physicstoday/article/73/7/30/800801/Isaac-Newton-and-the-perils-of-the-financial-South

The two vertical lines marked “Newton sells” represent two instructions he issued in April 1720 for the sale of his South Sea stock; the horizontal line represents a period during which Newton was acquiring a large holding of British government bonds. Based on his overall wealth, we can assume that the money for that came from the liquidation of his South Sea stock.

It appears that in June of that year, Newton liquidated almost all of his newly acquired stake in government bonds and used the proceeds to buy South Sea stock. That move is shown in the first of the four vertical lines marked “Newton buys”; the other three vertical lines denote documented instances when Newton either bought South Sea stock directly or converted some of his other government bonds into it. We know he continued to pour money into the South Sea stock even as its price was beginning to slide, before the precipitous collapse in September 1720. By that time, essentially his entire fortune was invested in South Sea.

各种思维定势

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