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Huaren
等级一等兵
威望--
贴子341
魅力347
注册时间2024-09-15

yomayo131323

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L8 模型预测的重大失误原因之一

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2024-11-06 09:35:42

codeshogun 发表于 2024-11-06 07:22

2020年,拜登选票8100万,川普7400万。

现在(还没正式结束),川普得票7100万,哈哈姐目前是6600万。

全部结束后,川普得票应该和20年差不多,但哈哈姐貌似少了1000万的票。


这个可是你模型预测的一个重大失误啊。对选民turnout的预估不足


还是说。。。当年死人票只能用一次,今年不灵了?


GIGO

Huaren
等级一等兵
威望--
贴子341
魅力347
注册时间2024-09-15

yomayo131323

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2024-11-06 10:26:48

The final polls had Trump +6 in FL, he won by 13.

They had Harris +16 in NJ, she won by 5.

They had Ted Cruz +4 in Texas, he won by 10

The last Iowa poll had Harris +3, Trump won by 14.


Focus on PA:

2016:Clinton +2.8 she lost it.

2022: Biden +4.3% he won by 1.2%

2024: Harris -0.3% she lost by1.3%

...

The list goes on and on.

The polls were awful again and always underestimated Trump's support


If a model is based on these poll numbers...

初始化编辑器...

到底了