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yomayo131323
L8 模型预测的重大失误原因之一
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2024-11-06 09:35:42
codeshogun 发表于 2024-11-06 07:22
2020年,拜登选票8100万,川普7400万。
现在(还没正式结束),川普得票7100万,哈哈姐目前是6600万。
全部结束后,川普得票应该和20年差不多,但哈哈姐貌似少了1000万的票。
这个可是你模型预测的一个重大失误啊。对选民turnout的预估不足
还是说。。。当年死人票只能用一次,今年不灵了?
GIGO
The final polls had Trump +6 in FL, he won by 13.
They had Harris +16 in NJ, she won by 5.
They had Ted Cruz +4 in Texas, he won by 10
The last Iowa poll had Harris +3, Trump won by 14.
Focus on PA:
2016:Clinton +2.8 she lost it.
2022: Biden +4.3% he won by 1.2%
2024: Harris -0.3% she lost by1.3%
...
The list goes on and on.
The polls were awful again and always underestimated Trump's support
If a model is based on these poll numbers...
初始化编辑器...
到底了
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