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2006-05-22 12:29:00
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[此贴子已经被作者于2006-12-11 23:32:35编辑过]
附一个Bloomberg今天的分析文章 "兴登堡现象":
" May 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks' retreat from six-year
highs may have just begun, according to a technical indicator
known as the "Hindenburg Omen."
The market signal, named for a German airship that caught
fire and crashed 69 years ago this month in New Jersey, was sent
in April when unusually large numbers of stocks both reached
one-year highs and lows as prices climbed.
Since then, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has fallen 2.2
percent, including a 1.9 percent loss last week. The index may
be headed for a 20 percent drop, said Jim Miekka, the analyst
credited with discovering the barometer.
``We've had a market that has been undermined for quite
some time by oil and interest rates, but it was the Hindenburg
that told us that we should get out,'' said Miekka, 45, who
publishes the Sudbury Bull & Bear Report newsletter in St.
Petersburg, Florida."
Easy, easy, guys. Just pure discussions. I like atmosphere here.
One factor leading to 1987 crach is immature program trading at that time, as cascade effect triggered a lot of sell orders and it is more like an liquidity-driven event. Today's market is far more sophiscated, so we might not see another 15%+ down day like this.
But, this economy has its own serious problems. Some are not seen even in past bubble bursts. Feds deliberately created another bubble and faked recovery after 00-02 crash. The net result is irreversible credit system failure. Although default rate is still at historical lows, we might see it creeping up in the near future. Current high GDP growth is generated by multiple expansion and cheap credit, not corporate re-investment. Real inflation-adjusted household income is declining year over year while nearly all asset prices are inflating. When an economy is trying to keep its growth with huge negative account balance and huge trade deficit, there're only 2 outlets: deflating asset prices, or deflating currency.
Easy, easy, guys. Just pure discussions. I like atmosphere here.
One factor leading to 1987 crach is immature program trading at that time, as cascade effect triggered a lot of sell orders and it is more like an liquidity-driven event. Today's market is far more sophiscated, so we might not see another 15%+ down day like this.
But, this economy has its own serious problems. Some are not seen even in past bubble bursts. Feds deliberately created another bubble and faked recovery after 00-02 crash. The net result is irreversible credit system failure. Although default rate is still at historical lows, we might see it creeping up in the near future. Current high GDP growth is generated by multiple expansion and cheap credit, not corporate re-investment. Real inflation-adjusted household income is declining year over year while nearly all asset prices are inflating. When an economy is trying to keep its growth with huge negative account balance and huge trade deficit, there're only 2 outlets: deflating asset prices, or deflating currency.
I agree with you on all opinions and discussions are welcomed. We certainly dont want to see another crash. I enclose a quote from economist Mark Rubinstein.
"Adherents of geometric Brownian motion or log normally distributed stock returns (one of the foundation blocks of modern finance) must ever after face a disturbing fact: assuming the hypothesis that stock index returns are log normally distributed with about a 20% annualized volatility, the probability that the stock marekt could fall 29% (the decline in S&P futures on October 19th, 1987) in a single day is 10-160. So improbable is such an event that it would not be anticipated to occur even if the stock market were to last for 20 billion years, the upper end of the currently estimated duration of the universe. Indeed, such an event should not occur even if the stock market were to enjoy a rebirth for 20 billion years in each of 20 billion big bangs."
In other words, the crash lies so far to the extreme of the bell shaped curve that the normal distribution is unable to account for it. It is an anomaly, an outlier, a paradox. If the normal distribution fails to explain real market conditions, the assumptions underpinning the application of the normal distribution to markets - investor rationality, efficient markets, and a random walk - find themselves being threatened.
There might be another outlets added besides deflating asset prices and deflating currency, is housing pop.
You mean housing pop or housing flop? I really believe the whole housing sector is facing an unavoidable correction in the next 12-18 months. Property prices are stagnated, sellers are desperate to rush for exits, rentals are picking up, stockholders of home builders are voting with their feet. Right now the whole real estate market feels like right before a major selloff.
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