Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Final NYT-Siena Poll

Published Nov 03, 2024 at 7:06 AM EST

Updated Nov 03, 2024 at 9:16 AM EST

Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election.

The result, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.

It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.

Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.

Sienna College/New York Times is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade.

Donald Trump (left) in Warren, Michigan, on November 1, 2024, and Kamala Harris (left) in Madison, Wisconsin, on October 30, 2024. Trump is leading Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna... More Matt Rourke/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum appears to have moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her, but where she is now ahead.

In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump's favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by 4 points in the Keystone State—it now has them tied.

In Michigan, the results were unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now.

In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead.

As well as the presidential race, the poll also showed a narrowing race for some Senate seats.

The latest poll found Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads by 5 points, down from 9 in September.

In Wisconsin, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by 4 percentage points, down from 8 in September.

In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by 5 points, and Nevada's incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen holding a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Despite the overall strong results from Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, those alone will not be enough for the party to hold its majority, due to conservative former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin likely to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester looking unlikely to retain his Montana seat from the challenge of Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

According to NYT/Sienna's latest national survey, which polled 2,516 voters between October 20 and 23, the electorate is evenly split at 48 percent for both Harris and Trump.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-final-nyt-siena-poll-election-1979254