PLEASE Note - This is not research and is not intended as such. This has been prepared by individuals on the sales/trading desks of the Securities Division. This material does not represent a formal or official view of Goldman Sachs as the views expressed herein are solely those of the author(s), which may differ from those of Global Investment Research. All prices are indicative only. All references to “we/our” refer to the observations of the sales and trading desk.

NY ROUNDUP – Monday, March 31, 2014

微信公众平台 USOPTIONS

COMMENTS

· Strong end of the month for equities, especially EM which continues to trade very well. Taking a step back EEM up 3.9% on the month while SPX is only up 0.65% and NASDAQ was down 2.5%. Almost all sectors up today with healthcare +1.3% leading the way on the final day of Obamacare enrollment. Closes: SPX +0.79% at 1872.36; DJIA +0.82% to 16,457.66, NASDAQ +1.04% to 4199.

· The VIX is down 0.58 to 13.83.

· USDJPY breaks 103 overnight but most impressive price action is in EM where TRY +2.4% and RUB +1.7% both have large rallies post the Turkish election. Somewhat surprising that EURUSD will end higher today given the inflation print but interest is building for something to come out of this week’s ECB meeting.

· Treasuries were a miss on the day, with 10s and bonds closing 1-2bps weaker and 5s closing a touch stronger, helped by some better buying in the belly for month end. Overall, month end volumes ran a bit higher than usual. Month end aside, the most relevant headline of the day was on the back of Yellen’s speech, which caused the market to rally.

· After gold’s muted price action in Asia and London the yellow metal fell $10. The PGM complex rallied right on the Asia open but came under pressure as gold sold off. Nickel and Aluminum were the big base gainers on the day trading up 1.28% and 1.48%. Nickel had approached unchanged before the close but rallied abruptly from 15720 to 15875 in less than 4 minutes. Old crop soybeans rallied 1.67% while new crop fell 0.30% after the USDA reported lower inventories and higher planned acreage than expected.

· Tomorrow brings US ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, and Vehicle Sales; Manufacturing PMIs for the US, Eurozone and various European and Asian countries, Brazil, and Mexico; Unemployment for the Eurozone, Germany, and Italy; Canada IP; Brazil Trade Balance; Mexico IMEF Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Index; Australia Building Approvals; and CPI for Indonesia, Peru, and Venezuela. In terms of policy, the RBI will hold a monetary policy meeting, where GS expects no change to policy.

HIGHLIGHTS

· WSJ: Yellen Amplifies View on Need for Low Rates

· Bloomberg: Obamacare Enrollment Heading to 7 Million at Deadline

· Bloomberg: Draghi Shifts Data on Slack as Inflation Cements Rate Vow

· Chicago Purchasing Manager: 55.9 – lower than expected. Consensus 59.8. Previous 59.8.

CURRENCIES

CURRENCY VOL

FLOWS (BONDS, EQUITIES, COMMODITIES)

US BONDS – 10 YR UST Up +0-01 at 100-09 YTM 2.720% 30 YR UST Down -0-07 at 101-06 YTM 3.560%

DJIA Up +134.60 at 16,457.66 (+0.82%) S&P Up +14.72 at 1,872.34 (+0.79%) NASDAQ Up +43.24 at 4,199.00 (+1.04%)

GOLD Down -9.40 at 1,284.90 (-0.73%) WTI Down -0.18 at 101.50 (-0.18%)

AMERICAS

Date Time

Event

Consensus

Actual

Previous

03/31/14 09:00

ISM Milwaukee

51.00

56.03

48.59

03/31/14 09:45

Chicago Purchasing Manager

59.8

55.9

59.8

03/31/14 10:00

Annual Wholesale Inventory and Sales Revisions

03/31/14 10:30

Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

3.0

4.9

0.3

· WSJ: Yellen Amplifies View on Need for Low Rates. “Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Monday the U.S. economy and job market are still far from healthy, and still require plenty of support from the central bank's low-interest-rate policy. “The U.S. economy is still considerably short of the two goals assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congress” of low and stable inflation and maximum sustainable employment, Ms. Yellen told a conference on community investment. Ms. Yellen's remarks, emphasizing economic weakness, allayed concerns in financial markets that the Fed might be thinking about raising interest rates sooner than was previously expected. Investors currently are forecasting the first rate increase will come around mid-2015.”

· Bloomberg: Obamacare Enrollment Heading to 7 Million at Deadline. “A computer error stalled the federal government’s Obamacare enrollment site today as record numbers of visitors tried to sign up before a midnight deadline. The first annual enrollment period under the health law ends today, with early returns suggesting the Obama administration may approach the 7 million sign-ups it expected before the U.S. health exchange website, [url=http://healthcare.gov/]healthcare.gov[/url], faltered when it opened in October. Technology trouble returned about midday today, preventing new customers from starting the enrollment process as more than 100,000 people at a time tried to use the site to purchase a health plan. “The issue has now been fixed,” Joanne Peters, a spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Human Services, said in an e-mail. “All functionality is back up,” she said in a Twitter post.”

· Bloomberg: Canada Economy Rebounded in January on Manufacturing. “Canada’s gross domestic product rebounded in January as manufacturers led an expansion that was faster than economists anticipated. The world’s 11th largest economy grew by 0.5 percent to an annualized C$1.61 trillion ($1.46 trillion), recouping December’s 0.5 percent decline, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey was for output to grow 0.4 percent. Canada’s dollar rose as the data suggested an economy holding on through a harsh winter that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said is restraining output. Canada’s biggest trading partner is also shrugging off the bad weather, with the U.S. reporting on March 27 consumer spending rose the most in three years between October and December.”

WORLD

· Bloomberg: Draghi Shifts Data on Slack as Inflation Cements Rate Vow. “Mario Draghi can study an array of data this week to help him track his latest policy metric: economic slack. Inflation figures today showed prices rising at the slowest pace in more than four years. Unemployment tomorrow should also help illustrate the spare capacity left in the euro area by its debt crisis and double-dip recession. As the European Central Bank president meets policy makers to set interest rates on April 3, manufacturing and services surveys might hint at how fast the so-called output gap is closing. Draghi mentioned slack for the first time after the last meeting to reassure investors that borrowing costs will stay low even as the economy revives, adopting a guidance tool employed by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney only three weeks previously.”

· Reuters: Britain’s Osborne changes tone on economy with ‘full employment’ target. “British finance minister George Osborne on Monday sounded a brighter note on the economy as the country gears up for an election in just over a year, and set a target of "full employment". With economic policy likely to form a major electoral battleground in 2015, Osborne said he wanted Britain to have the highest employment rate of the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized economies. The pledge, made in a speech to employers and recently hired workers, marked a change in tone from Osborne, who has previously sought to remind voters of the tough cost-cutting he plans for the years ahead, even as the economy recovers. “We will not rest while we still have so much wasted potential in some parts of our country,” he said.”

Date Time

Country

Event

GS Forecast

Consensus

Previous

04/01/14 01:30

Australia

Commodity Index YoY

-12.10%

04/01/14 01:30

Australia

Commodity Index AUD

90.8

04/01/14 20:30

Australia

Job vacancies

-1.70%

04/01/14 20:30

Australia

Building Approvals MoM

-2.00%

-2.00%

6.80%

04/01/14 20:30

Australia

Building Approvals YoY

27.90%

34.60%

04/01/14 20:00

New Zealand

ANZ Commodity Price

0.90%

03/31/14-04/07/14

Japan

Official Reserve Assets

$1288.2B

04/01/14 01:00

Japan

Vehicle Sales YoY

15.00%

04/01/14 19:50

Japan

Monetary Base YoY

55.70%

04/01/14 19:50

Japan

Monetary Base End of period

¥204.8T

04/01/14 04:00

Eurozone

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

53

53

04/01/14 04:30

Eurozone

Markit EU Manufacturing PMI

53.8

04/01/14 05:00

Eurozone

Unemployment Rate

12.00%

12.00%

04/01/14 03:50

France

Markit France Manufacturing PMI

51.9

51.9

04/01/14 03:55

Germany

Unemployment Change (000's)

-10K

-14K

04/01/14 03:55

Germany

Unemployment Rate

6.80%

6.80%

04/01/14 03:55

Germany

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI

53.8

53.8

04/01/14 03:45

Italy

Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI

52

52.3

04/01/14 04:00

Italy

Unemployment Rate

12.90%

12.90%

04/01/14 12:00

Italy

New Car Registrations YoY

8.59%

04/01/14

Italy

Budget Balance

-12.8B

04/01/14 03:00

Norway

Manufacturing PMI

51.5

51

04/01/14 02:30

Sweden

PMI Manufacturing

53.7

54.6

04/01/14 03:30

Switzerland

PMI Manufacturing

56.5

57.6

04/01/14 04:30

United Kingdom

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

56.7

56.9

04/01/14-04/08/14

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MoM

0.60%

2.40%

04/01/14-04/08/14

United Kingdom

Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year

9.40%

7.90%

04/01/14 09:45

United States

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

56

55.5

04/01/14 10:00

United States

ISM Manufacturing

54

53.2

04/01/14 10:00

United States

ISM Prices Paid

59.5

60

04/01/14 10:00

United States

Construction Spending MoM

0.00%

0.10%

04/01/14 10:00

United States

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

46

45.1

04/01/14

United States

Domestic Vehicle Sales

12.30M

11.98M

04/01/14

United States

Total Vehicle Sales

15.80M

15.27M

04/01/14 08:30

Canada

Industrial Product Price MoM

0.80%

1.40%

04/01/14 08:30

Canada

Raw Materials Price Index MoM

3.00%

2.60%

04/01/14 09:30

Canada

RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI