There is nothing mysterious about all this.  The market’s patterns can be linked to human behavior.

Take the summer lull.  Even as late as May, credit card bills from the holidays are still coming in, and investors who don’t get an income tax refund must pay taxes.  Not only that, money is needed for summer vacations, when investors turn their attention to relaxation rather than stocks.  All this helps make May-October the weakest half of the year.

One of the market’s most important patterns is the “presidential cycle,” which shows that the stock market is typically weak during the first two years of the four-year presidential term and strongest during the final two years leading up to the next election.

That’s good news now, since 2007 is a presidential pre-election year, which is by far the best of the four years in the cycle, with a 10.6 percent average gain.

The conventional explanation is that presidents typically do their dirty work early in the term so that voters have time to forget it by the next election.  Meanwhile, the president can goose the economy as the next election approaches, so voters go to the polls in a favorable economic and market climate.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-14 18:13:23编辑过]

Sounds resonable, but my personally feeling is that, they are more likely to be post-analyze, not for prediction, hoho.

If enough people are using this, I think it will not hold long. :-)

Also, it is for broad market, many individual stocks may not follow. (and we often own those stocks) :-(

I know this article is on a broader view.  It should be case by case, which is hard to predict.  Maybe there is a pattern for individule stock, but it takes time to analyze it. 

I totally agree with you, 1976.

PS:

I saw MSN has a Strategy Lab, which have some "stock pickers", it seems their performance is also limited, given the ones presented there are the "best ones" over several round: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/derby/derbsumm.asp

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-15 0:00:32编辑过]