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Huaren
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贴子617
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注册时间2006-05-11

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贪心啊.......

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2007-05-11 11:56:00

以下是引用NXCD在2007-5-11 10:21:00的发言:

2004, 05, 06连续三年, 每年都是四五月份全球股市出问题. 当然每次的起因不一样, 04年是受china, india经济放缓的利空消息影响带动整个consumer sector, commodity, transportation等等; 05年是GM downgraded to junk引起的ripple wave; 06年是Emerging markets全面correction, intra-month跌过25%...

Street is used to saying: "Sell in May, buy back in October."

Consider the record, which is pretty stunning. If you'd put $10,000 into the S&P 500 with a strict sell-in-May, buy-in-October strategy on May 1, 1950, you'd have ended 2006 with more than $600,000, according to calculations from Ned Davis Research. If you'd done the opposite, and invested every May 1 and sold every Sept. 1, you'd have $12,083. If you'd just let it ride in a buy-and-hold strategy, you'd have $129,515, according to S&P.

Considering the record, if you put $1 in S&P 500 on Jan 01, 1950 and hold it until Dec 31, 2006, you would have $62.87. Comparing these 2 cases, you will see something.


[此贴子已经被作者于2007-5-11 11:55:58编辑过]

Huaren
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2007-05-14 12:24:00

以下是引用NXCD在2007-5-11 12:14:00的发言:

I think you are right except for that return looks like ex-dividend. 

That means market timing is not significant in the long run.  But short term you want to filter out the bad downturns. 


With Dividend reinvested, you would have more than that.
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