新衣服
贪心啊.......
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2007-05-11 11:56:00
2004, 05, 06连续三年, 每年都是四五月份全球股市出问题. 当然每次的起因不一样, 04年是受china, india经济放缓的利空消息影响带动整个consumer sector, commodity, transportation等等; 05年是GM downgraded to junk引起的ripple wave; 06年是Emerging markets全面correction, intra-month跌过25%...
Street is used to saying: "Sell in May, buy back in October."
Consider the record, which is pretty stunning. If you'd put $10,000 into the S&P 500 with a strict sell-in-May, buy-in-October strategy on May 1, 1950, you'd have ended 2006 with more than $600,000, according to calculations from Ned Davis Research. If you'd done the opposite, and invested every May 1 and sold every Sept. 1, you'd have $12,083. If you'd just let it ride in a buy-and-hold strategy, you'd have $129,515, according to S&P.
Considering the record, if you put $1 in S&P 500 on Jan 01, 1950 and hold it until Dec 31, 2006, you would have $62.87. Comparing these 2 cases, you will see something.
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-5-11 11:55:58编辑过]
I think you are right except for that return looks like ex-dividend.
That means market timing is not significant in the long run. But short term you want to filter out the bad downturns.
到底了
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