I can roughly understand your calculation.  However!!!  How can you tell if the next 3-4 yrs are going to be bull/bear market?  You calculation is based on a given assumption that YOU KNOW that market is going to be bull/bear market.  There are actually three market:  Bull, Bear and Flat.  Probaility-speaking, each market will have equal chance of occuring in any given year(that is 33.333333% chance for each market occurance).  You have to take the weighted average of all your projected numbers, which means that your number will be significantly diluted.  Plus, more importantly, I think it is very important to define my defination of "market".  Market mean the whole market that contains all possible asset class (equity, bonds, real-estate, commodity, and many others).  So, a bull market in equity can translate into bear market in other asset class.  I believe that your calculation seems to be only restricted in equity market (correct me if I am wrong).  When you consider the whole-market concept, the expected return of a well-diversifed portfilio should be the weighed average return of all its asset class.  Bottom line:  (1)I don't know how to apply calcuations base on "Certain Future Events" (I"know" next yr will be bull/bear market), (2) Market concept is based on a whole-market concept.  I can you that you must have taken lot of time-value class.